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Day: November 15, 2024

Simulate basic 12 straegies method

simulate for this 12 straegies method by using my signals provided: 1. Price action trading 2. Range trading strategy 3.Trend trading strategy 4. Position trading 5. Day trading strategy 6. Scalping strategy 7. Swing trading 8. Carry trade strategy 9. Breakout strategy 10. News trading 11. Retracement trading 12. Grid trading

To simulate these 12 trading strategies using the available signals in SQX, we’ll first match each strategy type with appropriate indicators from your list. This will create a structured approach for SQX to build and optimize each strategy based on specific methodologies.

  • SignalsCandle PatternsFractalsATR
  • Approach: Price action traders rely on interpreting market structure, chart patterns, and key price levels. Candle patterns combined with ATR for volatility can help pinpoint entries and exits.
  • Use in H1/H4: H1 for active candle formations; H4 for larger price patterns.
  • SignalsBollinger BandsKeltner ChannelRSIStochastic
  • Approach: Range trading involves identifying overbought and oversold conditions within a sideways market. Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channel are excellent for defining the range, while RSI or Stochastic can time the entry.
  • Use in H1/H4: H1 for entering at range extremes; H4 to confirm the range is stable.
  • SignalsADXMACDSuper TrendIchimoku
  • Approach: Focus on capturing sustained market trends. ADX confirms trend strength, MACD signals momentum, while Ichimoku and Super Trend confirm trend direction.
  • Use in H1/H4: H1 for trend signals; H4 for broader trend confirmation.
  • SignalsIchimokuHull Moving AverageRSIADX
  • Approach: Position traders take long-term trades based on macro trends. Ichimoku and Hull MA work well for spotting long-term trends, while ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Use in H1/H4: H4 for trend identification; H1 for fine-tuning entries.
  • SignalsMoving AverageVWAPRSIMomentum
  • Approach: Day traders use quick signals to profit from intraday price movements. Moving averages, VWAP (volume-weighted average price), and momentum indicators work well for this.
  • Use in H1/H4: H1 for day trading entries; H4 for ensuring alignment with larger trends.
  • SignalsParabolic SARATRStochasticVWAP
  • Approach: Scalping requires fast signals. Parabolic SAR and ATR work for precise entry/exit timing, while Stochastic identifies quick overbought/oversold conditions.
  • Use in H1/H4: H1 for quick price action trades; H4 could be used to ensure macro trend direction is not against the trade.
  • SignalsMACDRSIHull Moving AverageFractals
  • Approach: Swing traders seek to profit from intermediate price swings. MACD and Hull MA identify swings, while RSI and Fractals time entry/exit points.
  • Use in H1/H4: H1 for swing setups; H4 for trend alignment.
  • SignalsKAMA (Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average)Directional IndexVWAPATR
  • Approach: Although carry trading is more interest-rate based, technical signals like KAMA can help identify good entry points into longer-term trades, while ATR helps manage risk.
  • Use in H1/H4: H4 for trend setup; H1 for trade entry and management.
  • SignalsBollinger BandsATRMomentumADX
  • Approach: Breakout strategies focus on trading volatility expansions. Bollinger Bands and ATR identify breakouts, while Momentum confirms the breakout direction.
  • Use in H1/H4: H1 for breakouts; H4 for larger breakout confirmation.
  • SignalsATRMomentumVolume-based signals (e.g., VWAP, AVG Volume)
  • Approach: News trading involves reacting quickly to market events. ATR captures volatility surges, while VWAP and momentum indicators show how the market reacts.
  • Use in H1/H4: H1 for fast reaction to news events; H4 for identifying broader market sentiment.
  • SignalsFibonacci retracement levels (can be coded), StochasticRSIFractals
  • Approach: Retracement trading involves entering trades when price retraces within a larger trend. Stochastic and RSI work to identify the retracement, while Fractals show reversal points.
  • Use in H1/H4: H1 for identifying retracement; H4 for trend direction and retracement targets.
  • SignalsNone (grid strategy)ATRBollinger Bands (optional for range)
  • Approach: Grid trading involves placing multiple orders at set intervals without needing precise signals. However, ATR or Bollinger Bands can add volatility context to the grid.
  • Use in H1/H4: Primarily H1 for grid execution; H4 for macro trend bias (optional).

  • Price Action, Range, and Trend Strategies: These should perform well when tested with H1 signals and H4 confirmation due to their reliance on technical signals and clear exit rules.
  • Day Trading and Scalping: These may require faster timeframes or tighter risk management, but with ATR and quick momentum indicators, they can be effective.
  • Swing Trading and Position Trading: These will work well on higher timeframes (H1/H4), as they capitalize on medium- to long-term price movements.
  • Breakout, News, and Retracement Trading: The success of these strategies will depend on volatility and momentum confirmation.
  • Grid Trading: This is more mechanical and will require less signal-based input but can benefit from ATR or volatility-based indicators to avoid extreme market conditions.

By implementing these strategies and adjusting them with sequential optimization, you can test and refine how each approach behaves on various timeframes.

SQX signals in my hand

okin now on the way of building from above we’re talking. i’m listig all signals that i have on SQX for you: ADX, Arron, ATR, ATR Percent Rank, AVG Volume, Awesome Oscillator, Bear power, Bull power, BH Ergodic, Bollinger Bands, Candle Pattern, CCI, Choppiness Idex, Connor RSI, CSSA Market Regime, Demarker, DEMA, Didi index, Directional Index, Disparity Index, DPO, DSS Bressert, DVO, Entrophy Math, Fractal, Gann HI LO, Highest Lowest, Hull moving Average, Ichimoku, KAMA, Kaufma Efficiency Ratio, Keltner Channal, Laguerre RSI, Lin Reg, MACD, Momentum, Movinng Average, OSMA, Parabolic SAR, QQE, Reflex, ROC, RSI, RVI Schaff Trend Cycle, SR Percent rank, Std Dev, Stochastic, Super Tred, Trend, TTM Squeeze, Ulcer Index, Vortex ,VWAP, William PR.

Thanks for sharing the list of signals. With such a wide range of technical indicators available, you can create diverse strategies tailored to different market conditions and timeframes.

Since you’re focusing on H1 as the main signal timeframe and H4 as confirmation, here are some suggestions for selecting and combining signals based on their roles in trend detection, volatility, momentum, and entry/exit timing:

  1. Trend Detection Signals:
    • ADX (Average Directional Index): Excellent for determining the strength of a trend. Can be used to filter trades, only allowing entries when the trend strength is above a certain threshold.
    • Ichimoku: A robust all-in-one indicator for trend, momentum, and support/resistance levels. Ichimoku works well for confirmation on H4.
    • Super Trend: Simple and effective for trend-following strategies, it works well on both higher and lower timeframes for trend confirmation.
  2. Momentum Indicators:
    • MACD: Classic momentum indicator, useful for detecting trend changes or continuations.
    • RSI (Relative Strength Index) and Connors RSI: Great for identifying overbought/oversold conditions. You could combine this with trend filters to avoid countertrend trades.
    • Stochastic: Similar to RSI, it can add a timing element for entries or exits when paired with trend filters.
  3. Volatility & Range:
    • ATR (Average True Range) and ATR Percent Rank: Excellent for determining volatility. You could adjust stop-loss and take-profit levels based on volatility readings.
    • Bollinger Bands: Can be used for mean reversion strategies or volatility breakouts. Price reaching upper or lower bands could serve as exit points or trade triggers.
    • Keltner Channel: Useful in combination with volatility readings for breakout strategies.
  4. Price-Based Signals:
    • Candle Patterns: Effective for timing entries/exits based on specific price action patterns.
    • Parabolic SAR: Can provide dynamic stop-loss levels, especially useful for trailing stops.
    • Williams %R: Good for detecting overbought/oversold levels, especially on higher timeframes like H4.
  5. Additional Unique Indicators:
    • Ulcer Index: Measures downside risk. You can use it to avoid trading in risky periods.
    • Schaff Trend Cycle: Great for cyclical patterns in momentum, allowing timing entries with trend changes.
    • Vortex: Captures trend changes with crossovers; useful in combination with trend-following indicators like ADX or MACD.
  • Trend-Following Strategy:
    • Main Signal on H1: Combine ADX (trend strength) with MACD or Ichimoku to confirm trend direction and momentum.
    • Confirmation on H4: Use Super Trend or Ichimoku for trend confirmation on H4. Consider adding ATR for volatility-based stop adjustments.
  • Mean Reversion Strategy:
    • Main Signal on H1: Use Bollinger Bands or Keltner Channel with RSI or Williams %R to capture reversions.
    • Confirmation on H4: Add MACD or RVI (Relative Vigor Index) for broader trend direction to confirm whether the reversion fits the larger trend.
  • Volatility Breakout:
    • Main Signal on H1: Use ATR Percent Rank or Bollinger Bands for breakouts. Pair with Momentum or ROC (Rate of Change) to confirm price momentum.
    • Confirmation on H4: Add a higher timeframe confirmation such as Fractal or Directional Index for trend continuation.
  • You could let SQX’s Genetic Evolution process handle these combinations to find the most robust pairs.
  • When doing sequential optimization across different timeframes (M30/H4, M15/H4, M5/H4), include some of these indicators to test how they perform on faster timeframes and whether they enhance your strategy’s adaptability.

This should provide a good foundation for further strategy testing and refinement.

I got 400 from builds

then i got 400 from builds type : Exit everday 23:00, Exit on Friday 23:40, Exit Rules no fix exit day or time but hold not over 10 day and Repeat/Duplicate orders trade. from base H1/H4 TF, so can i use Sequantial optimization by +30% -30% with 10 step for another TF like M30/H4 M15/H4 and M5/H4. what do you think i can get some great results ?

Using sequential optimization by adjusting parameters +30% and -30% with 10 steps for testing other timeframes like M30/H4, M15/H4, and M5/H4 is a smart approach to explore the robustness and adaptability of your strategy across different timeframes. Here’s what to expect and consider:

  1. Broader Testing Range: By adjusting the parameters within the 30% range, you’ll ensure that you’re not just fine-tuning for one specific set of market conditions but testing for variability across different timeframes.
  2. Identify Timeframe Sensitivity: You’ll be able to see how your strategy behaves with different levels of granularity (e.g., faster-moving timeframes like M5 vs slower ones like M30). This can help you identify if your strategy is overly reliant on a specific timeframe or whether it’s flexible across multiple.
  3. Refining Exit Strategies: Since your strategies include time-based exits (e.g., exiting at 23:00 daily or on Fridays at 23:40), sequential optimization will allow you to see if different exit timings yield better results on shorter timeframes. The hold-not-over-10-days rule may work differently on lower timeframes where market volatility plays a bigger role.
  4. Exploration of New Opportunities: By shifting to M30/H4, M15/H4, and M5/H4, you’ll open your strategy to new trading opportunities as faster timeframes capture more price fluctuations. This could either increase profitability or increase risk, depending on how well your strategy manages shorter-term price swings.
  1. Overfitting: The more timeframes and parameters you optimize, the higher the risk of overfitting. To avoid this, focus on keeping core elements of the strategy consistent and avoid over-optimizing for one specific timeframe.
  2. Higher Volatility on Lower Timeframes: When moving to lower timeframes (like M15 or M5), strategies can be more prone to whipsaws and false signals due to increased market noise. Sequential optimization can help adjust, but ensure your risk management rules (like SL, TP, and trailing stops) are adaptable to these faster movements.
  3. Execution Speed and Slippage: Shorter timeframes (M15 and M5) might experience more slippage and execution issues in live trading. Make sure that the strategy can handle the increased trade frequency without degrading profitability.
  4. Strategy Robustness: Pay attention to how the strategy behaves during out-of-sample testing after the optimization across different timeframes. You’re looking for a strategy that performs consistently across multiple timeframes, not just optimized for one.
  • You might find that your strategy performs better on intermediate timeframes like M30/H4 or M15/H4 because these timeframes strike a balance between fast execution and less noise.
  • M5/H4 can be more volatile, and while it might open more trading opportunities, it could also increase drawdowns or risk of false signals. Sequential optimization can help fine-tune it to still be effective.

In summary, using sequential optimization with a +30%/-30% range across timeframes like M30/H4, M15/H4, and M5/H4 is a strong approach to test the adaptability of your strategy. If applied well, you could discover new opportunities on lower timeframes while maintaining a solid performance on H1/H4.

  • Walk-forward optimization after sequential optimization can further ensure robustness by simulating how the strategy would adapt over time in live markets. This can be especially useful for testing how the strategy would react in different timeframes.

Sharpe ratio greater than 2?

Sharpe ratio greater than 1 is a positive indicator for a trading strategy, but when it’s over 2, it signifies even better performance. Here’s a breakdown:

  • Sharpe Ratio > 1: Indicates that the strategy is generating more returns than the risk it’s taking. A ratio above 1 means the excess returns (returns above the risk-free rate) are higher than the volatility of the strategy’s returns.
  • Sharpe Ratio > 2: This is considered excellent performance. A Sharpe ratio over 2 means the strategy is delivering significantly higher returns relative to the amount of risk (volatility) it’s exposed to. It suggests the strategy is not only profitable but also doing so with low volatility and risk. This kind of performance is desirable for long-term strategies, as it indicates a strong balance between risk and reward.
  1. Efficient Risk Management: The strategy takes relatively low risk compared to the high returns it generates.
  2. Low Volatility: The equity curve should be relatively smooth, with fewer large drawdowns.
  3. Consistency: It’s a sign of strong risk-adjusted returns—the strategy is not reliant on a few lucky trades but generates returns consistently over time.

In summary, a Sharpe ratio over 2 indicates an outstanding risk-reward balance, and such a strategy is highly desirable, especially if the ratio remains consistent across both In-Sample (IS) and Out-of-Sample (OOS) testing. However, always double-check for overfitting or data snooping—make sure that this performance translates well in OOS and live trading conditions.

Ranking Consider

i just building and got some prototype but i asking u: Profit factor, Ret/DD ratio, Stability, Fitness, Open DD%, Win/Loss ratio and CAGR/Max DD%. Rank these values ​​from most important to least important that I should consider, including the analysis of both IS and OOS at each stage.

When evaluating a trading strategy, especially in StrategyQuant X (SQX), the metrics you mentioned are all important but serve different purposes. Ranking them depends on your specific goals (e.g., minimizing risk, maximizing returns, or focusing on long-term sustainability). Here’s a ranking from most important to least important, considering both In-Sample (IS) and Out-of-Sample (OOS) stages:

  • Why It’s Important: This is a key metric for long-term growth and sustainability of the strategy. It balances how much the strategy grows versus how much it risks. A high CAGR with a low Max Drawdown ensures that the strategy is generating returns without taking excessive risk.
  • IS/OOS Consideration: A good ratio in both IS and OOS suggests that the strategy is scalable and robust across different market environments.
    • IS: Focus on optimizing this metric to ensure strong growth.
    • OOS: Ensure consistency; a large drop in OOS could indicate overfitting.
  • Why It’s ImportantProfit Factor (gross profit divided by gross loss) is essential for understanding the overall profitability of the strategy. A Profit Factor greater than 1 indicates a profitable system, with values above 1.5 or 2 being ideal.
  • IS/OOS Consideration: Profit Factor must remain solid in OOS testing. If it drops significantly OOS, the strategy may be curve-fitted.
    • IS: Aim for a strong value, but don’t prioritize it at the expense of risk management.
    • OOS: Focus on stability and a consistent profit factor.
  • Why It’s Important: This metric balances returns against drawdowns. A high Ret/DD ratio indicates that the strategy generates good returns relative to the risk (drawdown) it takes.
  • IS/OOS Consideration: It’s important in both IS and OOS stages because it ensures that your strategy’s performance isn’t reliant on taking high risks. Look for consistency across both.
    • IS: Focus on maximizing returns while keeping drawdowns minimal.
    • OOS: The ratio should not degrade significantly, ensuring stability.
  • Why It’s Important: Open DD% tracks the maximum floating loss during a trade that hasn’t closed yet. This is crucial for understanding the worst-case scenarios and how your strategy behaves in adverse conditions. High Open DD% could signal that the strategy lets trades run into significant losses before closing them.
  • IS/OOS Consideration: In OOS, you want to see a manageable Open DD%. A high Open DD% in OOS could indicate riskier trades.
    • IS: Optimize to keep Open DD% within acceptable risk limits.
    • OOS: Check if the Open DD% stays controlled in unseen data.
  • Why It’s Important: Stability measures how consistent the equity curve is over time. A stable equity curve is essential for long-term profitability and avoiding emotional stress from sharp equity fluctuations.
  • IS/OOS Consideration: Stability should be maintained across both IS and OOS phases to ensure that the strategy isn’t over-optimized to one specific market condition.
    • IS: High stability is desirable, but watch out for overfitting.
    • OOS: Check if stability remains intact without large drops in equity.
  • Why It’s Important: While the Win/Loss ratio is helpful, it doesn’t paint a full picture. A strategy with a lower win rate can still be profitable if the winning trades are larger than the losing ones. It’s more useful when combined with other metrics like Profit Factor or Return-to-Drawdown.
  • IS/OOS Consideration: While optimizing, focus less on having a high Win/Loss ratio and more on profitability. The Win/Loss ratio may vary but shouldn’t drastically change between IS and OOS phases.
    • IS: It’s fine if the Win/Loss ratio isn’t extremely high as long as the strategy is profitable.
    • OOS: Ensure the ratio doesn’t drop significantly.
  • Why It’s ImportantFitness is an overall measure used by SQX to rank strategies based on multiple performance metrics. It’s a good indicator in the early stages of strategy generation but can be less reliable than specific metrics like CAGR/Max DD% or Profit Factor for deep analysis.
  • IS/OOS Consideration: While a high fitness score is useful for identifying strong candidates in genetic evolution, don’t rely on it too heavily in OOS testing. Focus more on the other key metrics.
    • IS: A high fitness score helps in the strategy-building process.
    • OOS: Use other metrics to verify performance rather than fitness alone.

  • In the IS phase, you are primarily focusing on optimizing your strategy.
    • Prioritize CAGR/Max DD%, Profit Factor, and Ret/DD Ratio. These three metrics ensure that you have a strategy that is growing profitably with manageable risk.
    • Pay attention to Stability and Open DD% next, as they will indicate how smooth your strategy’s equity curve is and whether you can tolerate the drawdowns during open trades.
    • Win/Loss Ratio is less critical here, as it can be misleading if isolated from other factors. A lower Win/Loss ratio can be fine as long as the profits outweigh losses.
    • Fitness is helpful early on but don’t let it overshadow more significant performance metrics.
  • In the OOS phase, your focus shifts to robustness and ensuring the strategy is not overfitted to past data.
    • Look for consistency in CAGR/Max DD%, Profit Factor, and Ret/DD Ratio between IS and OOS. If these metrics significantly degrade, it’s a sign of overfitting.
    • Stability becomes more crucial here. A strategy that maintains stability in OOS is likely to perform well in live markets.
    • Open DD% should be well-managed, and ideally, it should not increase dramatically in OOS testing.
    • The Win/Loss Ratio can fluctuate, but it should not collapse in OOS. Ensure that profitable trades remain larger than losing ones.

  1. CAGR/Max DD% (Balances growth vs. risk, essential for long-term viability)
  2. Profit Factor (Key profitability measure)
  3. Ret/DD Ratio (Measures return relative to risk)
  4. Open DD% (Manages risk on open trades)
  5. Stability (Ensures a smooth equity curve)
  6. Win/Loss Ratio (Helpful but secondary to profitability metrics)
  7. Fitness (Useful early but less important for final validation)

This ranking should help guide your focus when optimizing and validating strategies in SQX. Let me know if you want to dive deeper into any specific aspect of the metrics!

M1 data and a 20-year range.

i use M1 data and 20yrs old of data range. too high or its ok? cuz i need to build once and leave it ran live a long period

Using M1 data and a 20-year range for backtesting in StrategyQuant X is a solid choice, especially if your goal is to build a strategy that will run live for a long period with minimal adjustments. However, there are a few considerations to keep in mind:

 

  1. Accuracy in Backtesting:
    • M1 data provides the most granular view of price action, capturing every minute’s high, low, open, and close. This is beneficial for building a precise strategy, especially for exit strategies where timing is critical, such as in trailing stops or scalping.
    • 20-year range provides a robust historical dataset that includes multiple market conditions (bullish, bearish, and volatile periods), allowing your strategy to adapt to different scenarios.
  2. Long-Term Viability:
    • Since you want a strategy that can be used live for a long period, backtesting across 20 years ensures that your strategy is tested across various market cycles (e.g., financial crises, economic booms, geopolitical events).
    • This can give you confidence that your strategy is not curve-fitted to short-term conditions and will be resilient over time.
  3. Diverse Market Phases:
    • Gold’s price action has changed significantly over the last 20 years. Testing your strategy on such a broad range of data ensures it performs well across different market environments (low volatility periods, high volatility during economic turmoil, etc.).
  1. Computational Load:
    • M1 data over 20 years is a lot of data. This will significantly increase the computational load, both in terms of time and processing power needed for backtesting, especially when using genetic algorithms.
    • Make sure you have the necessary hardware resources or adjust the size of the test (e.g., use fewer strategies in the genetic evolution process, optimize parameters over smaller chunks of data).
  2. Overfitting Risk:
    • With such a large dataset, there is always a risk of overfitting—where your strategy performs well in backtests but doesn’t generalize well in live trading.
    • Solution: Ensure you are using proper out-of-sample testing and walk-forward optimization to mitigate overfitting. This way, you can verify the strategy’s robustness over unseen data.
  3. Execution in Live Markets:
    • M1 data focuses on short-term fluctuations. While this provides precision in backtesting, your strategy may encounter slippage and latency issues in live trading due to the speed of executions required for minute-based strategies, especially in a fast-moving asset like gold.
    • Ensure that you take these factors into account when building your risk management rules.
  4. Historical Relevance:
    • Although 20 years of data ensures you cover a broad range of market environments, some past market conditions may no longer be relevant to current trading. For instance, gold’s behavior during the early 2000s might not reflect its price action post-2015.
    • Solution: While you can still backtest over 20 years, pay close attention to how the strategy performs in the last 5–10 years of data, as these periods reflect more recent market conditions.
  1. Use Data Segmentation:
    • You can break the 20-year period into different segments during backtesting:
      • In-sample (Training Period): The first 15 years of data.
      • Out-of-sample (Validation Period): The last 5 years.
    • This will allow you to refine your strategy on the first segment of data and validate its robustness on more recent market conditions.
  2. Walk-Forward Testing:
    • Instead of testing the entire 20-year period as a single block, consider using walk-forward optimization to evaluate how well your strategy adapts to changing market conditions over time. This will ensure that it’s not just performing well in hindsight, but would have adapted dynamically in the real market.
  3. Genetic Evolution with M1 Data:
    • When using genetic evolution on M1 data, it’s important to limit the complexity of the strategy (number of indicators, entry/exit rules) and avoid evolving too many parameters at once. This will help reduce the computational burden and minimize overfitting.
  4. Live Testing:
    • After backtesting, use a small account or demo to test the strategy in live conditions for a few weeks to verify its real-world performance. Factors like execution speed, slippage, and broker conditions can impact performance differently than in backtesting.
  • M1 data and a 20-year range is definitely not “too much” if your goal is to create a long-term, robust trading strategy. Just ensure that you optimize it efficiently using techniques like walk-forward optimization and out-of-sample testing.
  • Focus on building a strategy that is robust and adaptive rather than highly optimized for one specific condition, and it should serve you well over the long term in live trading.