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Fact Faq #3: What parts could be cut out?

Considering removing unnecessary parts or reducing certain processes can help improve efficiency and reduce processing time. Here are some suggestions for possible cuts or reductions:

1. Number of strategies in the Building phase:

Currently: You create 20 different strategies.
Suggestion: Try reducing the number of strategies generated in each cycle, starting by selecting the most likely successful strategies. For example, choose 10 strategies that are popular in the current market conditions or have been tested and are more likely to yield good results.

2. Number of currency pairs in the Melting phase:

Currently: You test all 30 currency pairs.
Suggestion: Reduce the number of currency pairs in the initial test rounds. You may select major currency pairs with high liquidity, such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, etc., which will reduce the overall testing time.

3. Timeframes in testing:

Currently: Testing is done on 10 timeframes.
Suggestion: Try reducing the number of timeframes used in the test, focusing on only relevant timeframes to your developed strategies, such as H1/H4 or M15/H1, which are more likely to give accurate results.

4. Automatic Retest phase:

Currently: You perform Automatic Retest multiple times.
Suggestion: Reduce the number of Automatic Retest cycles. Perform it only once after the Monte Carlo test to save time.

5. Use of Monte Carlo:

Currently: Using multiple Monte Carlo methods.
Suggestion: Consider using only one method that gives the most appropriate result or use it only in the final round of testing to save time.

6. Walk-Forward Matrix:

Currently: You use the Walk-Forward Matrix in multiple steps.
Suggestion: Reduce the use of the Walk-Forward Matrix in some steps and use it only in the final step to confirm the best results.

7. Adding new steps in the Ending phase:

Currently: You add new steps in each cycle.

Suggestion: Try limiting the addition of new steps in certain cycles, or only when unsatisfactory results are found from previous testing.
These reductions will help reduce overall processing time and make your EA creation more efficient without sacrificing the quality of the results obtained.

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Fact Faq #2: Disadvantage or a Good outcome?

Your current step-by-step process has both advantages and disadvantages to consider:

Advantages

Strategy diversity: Creating 20 strategies allows for greater trading diversity, increasing the chance of finding effective strategies in different market conditions.
Comprehensive testing: Backtesting with multiple currency pairs and different timeframes provides a comprehensive view of the strategy’s performance in various conditions, making the results more reliable.
Monte Carlo and Walk-Forward Testing: Increases confidence in the robustness of the strategy, as these tests simulate unexpected situations and market fluctuations.

Disadvantages

Time-consuming: Complex steps like backtesting and parameter adjustments for each strategy require significant processing time, which may hinder strategy development and improvement within limited time.
High resource consumption: Testing multiple iterations and multiple timeframes requires high computer resources, potentially causing delays on lower-performance machines.
Complexity of the process: The diverse and complex steps can make result analysis challenging and may increase the possibility of errors during processing.

Evaluation

Positive results if you can efficiently manage processing time and resources, and the results from comprehensive testing can be used to improve strategy effectiveness.
Negative aspects if the long processing time and high resource requirements prevent you from making timely improvements or developing, or causing the strategy to be delayed in responding to changing market conditions.

You can assess which steps take too long and consider reducing or simplifying those steps to improve overall efficiency.

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Topic-Based Filter VS. Mixed Criteria Filter #1

I apply a topic based filter here, sorting by the best IS, followed by the best OOs in that topic. The result is in the topic @Expert Advisor Performance Review Or do I apply a topic based filter by IS, followed by OOs that focus on something unrelated to the main topic? For example, filtering for the best Stability IS, followed by the second best Profits Factor or Cagr/dd%?
It sounds like you’re considering two different approaches to filtering your strategies. Here’s a breakdown of both methods:

  1. Topic-Based Filter:

    • Sort by the best IS (Importance Score) in a specific topic first, followed by sorting by the best OOs (Out-of-Sample performance) within that same topic.
    • This approach ensures that you focus on strategies that are not only well-ranked within the same criteria but also relevant to a specific trading theme or topic. It can help you build a coherent portfolio centered on a particular strategy style or market condition.
  2. Mixed Criteria Filter:

    • Filter by the best Stability IS, followed by the second-best Profit Factor or CAGR/Max DD% that may not necessarily relate to the initial Stability topic.
    • This approach allows for more diversification in your selection process, potentially leading to a more balanced portfolio. It could help in identifying strategies that excel in different areas, even if they are not directly related.

Recommendation:

  • If your goal is to create a focused portfolio centered on a specific trading philosophy or market condition, the first method (topic-based filter) is likely more effective.

  • If you aim to have a diverse portfolio with strategies excelling in various performance metrics, the second method (mixed criteria filter) would be beneficial.

Consider your overall strategy and objectives when deciding which filtering method to apply…

If you’re opting for the Mixed Criteria Filter with one selection for each filter, you can prioritize the metrics based on what is most critical for your trading strategy. Here’s a suggested approach:

  1. First Filter (IS): Choose the metric that aligns best with your trading goals and risk tolerance. Here are a few options:
    • Sharpe Ratio: This is a solid choice if you want to focus on risk-adjusted returns. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better returns for the level of risk taken.
    • CAGR/Max DD%: If you’re particularly concerned about long-term growth relative to drawdown, this metric provides insight into the strategy’s growth potential while considering drawdown risk.
    • Profit Factor: This metric helps to assess how much profit a strategy makes compared to its losses. It’s useful if you want to ensure the strategy is consistently profitable.

    Recommended Choice: Sharpe Ratio – It gives a comprehensive view of risk-adjusted performance, which is crucial for evaluating trading strategies.

  2. Second Filter (OOS): This filter will provide insights into the strategy’s out-of-sample performance. Choose the metric that best reflects your priorities for OOS evaluation:
    • Net Profit: This is straightforward and gives a clear view of overall profitability.
    • Consecutive Win/Loss: If you’re focused on stability and consistency, this metric can highlight how often the strategy wins or loses in succession, which might be important for managing psychological aspects of trading.

    Recommended Choice: Net Profit – It provides a clear indicator of how well the strategy performs in real-world conditions beyond backtesting.

Summary of Selections:

  • First Filter (IS): Sharpe Ratio
  • Second Filter (OOS): Net Profit

This combination should help you identify robust strategies that are not only effective in backtesting but also demonstrate solid performance in out-of-sample evaluations.

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Adapting and Understanding some Popfirm rules

To help you optimize for the FTMO challenge, here are detailed points addressing your questions:

  1. Daily Loss Limit (5%):
    • Trade Sizing: Structure your trade sizes so that no single trade or group of trades taken on the same day exceeds 2-3% of the account. This buffer can help you stay within the 5% limit even in the worst-case scenario.
    • Stop Loss Placement: Always use stop losses to cap the potential loss on each trade. Ensure that cumulative risk from open positions stays well within the daily loss limit.
    • Limit Daily Exposure: Use a daily trading plan that sets a cap on the number of trades or risk exposure for the day, helping prevent overtrading.
  2. Maximum Drawdown (10%):
    • Portfolio Diversification: Build a diversified strategy set to spread risk across uncorrelated assets or strategies.
    • Regular Monitoring: Use SQX to simulate and monitor drawdown patterns during backtesting and select strategies with a maximum drawdown comfortably below the 10% threshold.
    • Adaptive Stop Loss: Implement dynamic stop losses or trailing stops that adjust based on market volatility to protect gains and reduce drawdown.
  3. Risk Management:
    • Fixed Fractional Position Sizing: Risk a fixed percentage (e.g., 0.5%-1%) of your account on each trade to limit potential losses without stifling profit potential.
    • Break-Even Stops and Trailing Stops: Use break-even stops to remove risk after a trade moves in your favor and trailing stops to lock in profit as it continues.
    • Multiple Timeframe Analysis: Use higher timeframes for trend direction and lower ones for entry, optimizing entry points and reducing the chance of high drawdowns.
  4. Consistency:
    • Robust Backtesting and Optimization: Use SQX to test strategies across various time periods and ensure they perform consistently, not just in one market condition. Utilize out-of-sample testing to confirm stability.
    • Trade Filters: Apply filters based on volatility, trend strength (e.g., ADX or Moving Average slopes), or other market conditions to prevent trading in suboptimal periods.
    • Maintain Simplicity: Avoid overfitting by keeping strategy rules straightforward and logical.
  5. Adapting to Different Market Conditions:
    • Volatility-Based Adjustments: Incorporate volatility measures such as ATR to adapt stop loss and take profit levels according to market conditions.
    • Multi-Strategy Approach: Combine trend-following, mean-reversion, and breakout strategies to cover various market phases.
    • Monitoring Correlations: Regularly check correlations between strategies or instruments to avoid compounding risk when market conditions change.
  6. Position Sizing:
    • Dynamic Sizing: Adjust position size based on current account equity and market volatility. This can be done using ATR-based sizing to ensure that each position aligns with your risk tolerance.
    • Scaling In and Out: Gradually scale into trades to mitigate entry risk and scale out to lock in partial profits, balancing risk and reward.
  7. Stop Loss Placement:
    • ATR-Based Stops: Use a multiple of ATR (e.g., 1.5-2x ATR) to set a stop loss that adapts to current market volatility, allowing enough room for price fluctuations.
    • Technical Levels: Place stops beyond key support/resistance or Fibonacci levels to avoid being stopped out prematurely.
    • Time-Based Stops: Consider using time-based exits in combination with price-based stop losses to limit exposure during uncertain market periods.

These strategies and tips can help you meet FTMO’s trading rules while optimizing for profitability and risk management.

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Time and History passed, Just worried

In backtesting against 20 years of gold data, if my cost is around $1000, should I be concerned with the 2003-2010 period, since gold prices were significantly different after 2010, or should I add more cost for this test?

When backtesting against 20 years of gold data with a cost of $1000, the period from 2003 to 2010 warrants special attention for a few reasons:

Why Focus on 2003–2010?

  1. Market Regime Change:
    • Gold underwent a major bull market during 2003–2010, rising from approximately $300 to over $1200 by the end of the period.
    • After 2010, gold experienced new price regimes, including the 2011 peak and subsequent corrections. These changes may mean that strategies working well before 2010 might fail in later, more volatile markets.
  2. Cost Significance:
    • A $1000 cost might have represented a larger relative percentage of the price during 2003–2010 (e.g., around 5%-10% of gold’s price) compared to post-2010 periods when gold prices have often been above $1500.
  3. Volatility Differences:
    • The volatility structure of gold has evolved over time. Pre-2010, trends were stronger and more directional, while post-2010 has seen more erratic and range-bound movements.

Should You Be Concerned?

Yes, you should carefully evaluate this period because:

  1. Disproportionate Impact:
    • If a strategy heavily depends on the trends of 2003–2010, its robustness in post-2010 periods (with more range-bound action) could be in question.
    • Costs may have a larger impact on profitability for strategies built in this regime compared to more recent data.
  2. Regime Bias:
    • A strategy optimized for pre-2010 conditions may overfit to that regime and not generalize well for the flatter periods seen later.
  3. Risk of Misleading Results:
    • Even if the backtest shows strong performance overall, the pre-2010 period may dominate the results due to high trends and low relative costs.

Adjusting Costs for Realism

To ensure realistic testing:

  • Increase the Cost:
    • You can apply a scaled transaction cost to simulate the higher relative impact of costs during periods when gold prices were lower. For example:
      • Use a percentage-based cost relative to price (e.g., 0.2% of the price per trade) instead of a fixed $1000.
    • Alternatively, segment the backtest into multiple periods and apply different costs for each based on gold’s price levels.
  • Separate Analysis:
    • Evaluate performance metrics for 2003–2010 and post-2010 separately. This will help you determine if the strategy is overly reliant on the earlier period’s trends.

Practical Steps:

  1. Segment Backtest Results:
    • Divide results into multiple time frames (e.g., 2003–2010, 2011–2020, and 2021–present) and analyze performance metrics separately for each.
  2. Simulate Robust Costs:
    • Apply higher costs for lower price periods and re-run the backtest to evaluate its robustness across varying market conditions.
  3. Evaluate Strategy Adaptability:
    • Check how the strategy performs during flat or range-bound periods (e.g., 2012–2015) compared to strong trends (e.g., 2005–2010).
  4. Compare Across Assets:
    • Test the strategy on other metals like silver or correlated assets. This helps assess whether the strategy is robust to different price and volatility structures.

Conclusion:

You should absolutely scrutinize the 2003–2010 period. Adjusting costs based on relative price levels and segmenting your backtest will provide better insight into your strategy’s robustness. Additionally, focusing on OOS performance in post-2010 regimes is critical to avoid overfitting to historical bull markets.

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SQX and FTMO Popfirm setup #1

Setting up parameters for trading XAUUSD (Gold) can be pivotal due to its volatility and sensitivity to global economic news. Here’s a guide on configuring entry, take profit (TP), stop loss (SL), break-even (BE), and exit strategies, along with general advice:

1. Entry Parameters:

  • Signal Confirmation: Use multiple indicators for confirmation, such as a combination of a trend indicator (e.g., Moving Average or Kaufman Efficiency Ratio) and a momentum indicator (e.g., RSI or CCI).
  • Timeframes: Focus on the main timeframe (e.g., H1 for execution) and a higher timeframe (e.g., H4) for trend confirmation.
  • Volatility Filter: Apply ATR or Bollinger Bands to avoid entries during low-volatility periods when Gold often consolidates.
  • Breakout Strategy: Consider entries above/below recent highs/lows or breakout levels using Super Trend or Donchian Channels.

2. Take Profit (TP) Setup:

  • Fixed TP Levels: Set TP levels at 2-3 times the ATR value or use Fibonacci extensions (e.g., 161.8% or 261.8%) to target strong price levels.
  • Dynamic TP: Implement a trailing TP based on a percentage of price movement (e.g., 1-2% daily move in XAUUSD).
  • Partial Profit Taking: Lock in partial profits at the first TP level (e.g., 1:1 RRR), while letting the remaining position run to maximize gains.

3. Stop Loss (SL) Placement:

  • ATR-Based SL: Set stop losses at 1.5x-2x the ATR to allow for natural price movement and prevent early exits during typical gold fluctuations.
  • Support/Resistance SL: Place SL just beyond major support or resistance levels identified by pivot points or Fibonacci retracements.
  • Technical Patterns: Ensure SL is positioned outside significant chart patterns (e.g., triangles or channels) to confirm validity.

4. Break-Even (BE) Strategy:

  • Threshold BE: Move SL to breakeven after price moves in your favor by a certain percentage (e.g., 0.5%-1% of the price).
  • Volatility-Adjusted BE: Adjust the break-even point based on current ATR to avoid being stopped out prematurely during high volatility.
  • Two-Step BE: Initially move the SL to breakeven after a moderate profit (e.g., 1 ATR). As the trade progresses, trail the SL based on new ATR readings or key levels.

5. Exit Strategy:

  • End-of-Day Exits: Close positions before key market events or the end of the trading week to avoid overnight gaps and weekend volatility.
  • Time-Based Exits: Set a maximum holding period (e.g., no more than 5 days) to reduce exposure to unexpected market changes.
  • Signal-Based Exits: Use a trailing indicator like the Parabolic SAR or Super Trend for signal-based exits when the trend reverses.
  • Multi-Condition Exits: Combine exit signals from indicators such as RSI (overbought/oversold) and CCI divergences for a robust exit plan.

6. General Advice:

  • Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): Maintain an RRR of at least 1:2 or greater for each trade to ensure long-term profitability.
  • Volatility Considerations: Gold is sensitive to economic releases like U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, CPI data, and FOMC meetings. Plan around these dates by reducing position size or closing trades to manage risk.
  • Adaptive Position Sizing: Use a volatility-based position sizing model (e.g., ATR-adjusted) to align trade size with current market conditions.
  • Backtesting and Optimization: Use StrategyQuant X to test the strategy over long periods and different market cycles, ensuring robustness.
  • Portfolio Approach: Consider pairing your Gold strategy with other correlated and non-correlated assets to spread risk and smooth out performance.

 

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What does it mean to be too high in a bad way

When certain performance metrics are “too high” in a bad way, it could indicate potential issues with the strategy that may not be sustainable in live trading. Here’s what it means and what to watch out for:

1. Overfitting

  • Definition: Overfitting occurs when a strategy is too closely tailored to historical data, capturing noise and specific market idiosyncrasies that are unlikely to repeat in the future.
  • Symptoms:
    • Extremely high Profit Factor (e.g., significantly above 2.5–3) or Sharpe Ratio (e.g., above 3–4).
    • In-sample (IS) performance is excellent, but out-of-sample (OOS) or live trading results are inconsistent or poor.
  • Risk: Overfitted strategies may perform exceptionally well during backtests but fail when exposed to new market data or different conditions.
  • Solution: Verify with OOS testing and Walk-Forward Analysis. Include Monte Carlo simulations to ensure the strategy can handle variations.

2. Unrealistic Drawdown or Return Ratios

  • Definition: When metrics like CAGR/Max DD% or Ret/DD ratio are exceptionally high, they might reflect unrealistic expectations.
  • Symptoms:
    • A CAGR/Max DD% ratio much greater than 2 or a Ret/DD ratio significantly higher than 10 can be warning signs.
  • Risk: Such ratios may indicate that the strategy is leveraging risk in ways that won’t hold up under normal market conditions. It could signal a dependency on rare, high-profit events that are unlikely to occur consistently.
  • Solution: Reassess risk parameters and ensure that the strategy’s profitability isn’t driven by a few outlier trades.

3. Abnormally High Profit Factor

  • Definition: A profit factor that is too high (e.g., above 3 or 4) may signal that the strategy is excessively optimized for historical price patterns.
  • Symptoms:
    • The strategy might have extremely low drawdown and very high winning trades, which may not be sustainable.
  • Risk: This could mean that the strategy depends on perfect market conditions or specific historical events that may not happen again.
  • Solution: Test the strategy on different market conditions and instruments to ensure it isn’t tied to unique historical data quirks.

4. Excessive Win Rate

  • Definition: An abnormally high win rate (e.g., 90% or more) could suggest that the strategy has a small average win compared to its average loss or that it takes excessive risks to avoid losses.
  • Symptoms:
    • The win-to-loss ratio may be high, but the profit factor and Sharpe ratio may not align accordingly.
  • Risk: A high win rate strategy may suffer from large drawdowns or losses in the rare events when it does lose, affecting long-term sustainability.
  • Solution: Evaluate the risk-reward ratio of the strategy and ensure that it has a reasonable balance between average win size and average loss.

5. Low Drawdown with High Returns

  • Definition: While low drawdown with high returns is desirable, it can be a red flag if the drawdown is suspiciously low (e.g., <5%) while returns are exceptionally high.
  • Symptoms:
    • The strategy may appear almost too perfect, indicating that it could be optimized for very specific historical conditions.
  • Risk: This is often a sign of over-optimization where the strategy’s parameters have been excessively tailored to past data.
  • Solution: Introduce randomness using Monte Carlo analysis and run extensive OOS testing to ensure the strategy can adapt to different market conditions.

How to Address “Too High” Metrics:

  1. Use Cross-Market Testing: Run the strategy on different instruments to ensure it performs well outside its original dataset.
  2. Increase OOS Testing Periods: Lengthen OOS testing to ensure the strategy’s edge holds over diverse conditions.
  3. Reduce Parameter Sensitivity: Simplify the strategy’s rules or increase the parameter ranges to make the strategy less dependent on specific conditions.
  4. Monte Carlo Simulations: Perform these to simulate potential market conditions and check for performance consistency under random variables.
  5. Walk-Forward Matrix: Use a Walk-Forward Matrix to test the strategy’s adaptability over multiple forward periods.

Final Thought:

High performance metrics are not inherently bad, but when they reach extreme values, they could signal underlying weaknesses like overfitting or unrealistic optimization. To ensure the strategy is robust, it’s important to test thoroughly, maintain simplicity, and validate with realistic, forward-looking data.

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Can i use filters like above for portfolio making

Yes, you can definitely use the filters you listed for building your trading portfolio. Applying these filters ensures that only the most robust and reliable strategies make it into your portfolio, creating a diversified and resilient set of strategies for trading. Here’s how to use these filters effectively when constructing a portfolio:

Steps for Using Filters to Create a Portfolio:

  1. Apply the Filters to Select Strategies:
    • Use your filters (e.g., Profit Factor > 1.4, Ret/DD ratio > 4, Sharpe Ratio > 1.5, etc.) to narrow down your list of strategies.
    • Apply these filters consistently across all testing stages (IS, OOS, and different data precisions) to ensure that the selected strategies are robust and well-suited for real trading.
  2. Select a Diverse Set of Strategies:
    • Mix Strategy Types: Include different types of strategies such as trend-following, mean reversion, breakout, and range trading to diversify your portfolio.
    • Multiple Timeframes: Ensure that your portfolio contains strategies that trade on different timeframes (e.g., H1, M30, M15, M5) to spread risk across various market conditions.
    • Trading Approaches: Include strategies with different entry and exit techniques (e.g., indicators, price action, volatility-based) for a balanced portfolio.
  3. Ensure Correlation Is Low:
    • Check for correlation between the selected strategies. Including highly correlated strategies may increase the overall risk as they might behave similarly during specific market conditions.
    • Aim for strategies that complement each other, so that if one performs poorly, others may compensate for it.
  4. Backtest the Portfolio:
    • Backtest the combined portfolio using your existing filters to evaluate the overall performance metrics such as profit factor, drawdown, Sharpe ratio, and stability.
    • Use a weighted approach for strategy allocation to balance exposure within the portfolio.
  5. Simulate Portfolio with Out-of-Sample (OOS) Data:
    • Run the portfolio through OOS testing and check the combined performance metrics.
    • Ensure that the portfolio maintains acceptable levels of maximum drawdown, stability, and profitability.
  6. Optimize Strategy Allocation:
    • Adjust the capital allocation for each strategy to balance the portfolio risk. For example, allocate more capital to strategies with a higher Sharpe ratio or a better Ret/DD ratio.
    • Ensure the overall portfolio drawdown stays within a risk-tolerant level that aligns with your trading goals.

Benefits of Using These Filters for Portfolio Creation:

  • Consistency: Applying these filters helps ensure that your portfolio strategies are consistently high-quality, reducing the risk of underperformance.
  • Robustness: By selecting strategies that meet your strict criteria across all stages of testing, your portfolio will be more adaptable to various market conditions.
  • Risk Management: Including maximum drawdown and stability filters keeps your portfolio within manageable risk levels.

Final Tips:

  • Monitor Portfolio Performance: After constructing your portfolio, continue to monitor its performance periodically and replace or adjust strategies as needed based on live or forward-test results.
  • Forward Test: Always forward test the portfolio in a demo or live environment with minimal risk to confirm that it behaves as expected.

Using your existing filters as a benchmark for selecting strategies ensures that you build a strong, diversified portfolio capable of sustaining various market conditions.

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What i must do after step 3 for final review and compare?

After completing Step 3 (the Walk-Forward Matrix with real tick data), the next step for a final review and comparison involves thorough analysis and filtering to confirm the robustness and reliability of the strategies. Here’s what you should do:

1. Aggregate Results from All Steps:

  • Compile the performance metrics from Step 1 (Selected TF + Monte Carlo), Step 2 (1-Minute Data Tick), and Step 3 (Real Tick Data with Walk-Forward Matrix).
  • Metrics to compare include:
    • Profit Factor
    • Sharpe Ratio
    • CAGR/Max DD%
    • Drawdown (Max and Open)
    • Stability
    • Win/Loss Ratio
    • Net Profit

2. Consistency Check Across Steps:

  • Compare Performance Metrics: Ensure that strategies performing well in Steps 1 and 2 still show good results in Step 3.
  • Consistency Across Steps: Prioritize strategies that maintain strong performance and meet your criteria in all testing phases. For example, a strategy with a profit factor consistently above your threshold across all steps is likely more robust.
  • Stability Analysis: Verify that the stability metric (e.g., > 0.8) is maintained across the steps, which indicates a consistent equity curve and reduced risk of erratic behavior.

3. Look for Outliers:

  • Identify strategies that show significant performance drops or volatility in Step 3 compared to Steps 1 and 2. A drop in metrics such as the Sharpe ratio or a spike in drawdown during the Walk-Forward analysis can signal potential weaknesses under live trading conditions.

4. Select the Most Robust Strategies:

  • Filter strategies that pass your final criteria (e.g., consistent Sharpe ratio > 2, profit factor > 1.5, drawdown < 20%).
  • Prioritize those that show minimal variation in performance metrics across different testing data sets, as this indicates adaptability and robustness.

5. Portfolio Creation:

  • Create Portfolios: Use the most robust strategies to create diversified portfolios. Ensure that these portfolios balance different strategy types and timeframes to reduce risk.
  • Simulate Portfolio Performance: Run a final simulation or backtest of your chosen portfolios on real tick data to evaluate how they perform together and assess their combined drawdown and profit factor.

6. Forward Testing and Live Demo:

  • Forward Test: Run your selected strategies or portfolios in a live demo account for a few weeks to a few months. This will help validate the strategies’ performance in real-time conditions without risking capital.
  • Monitor Performance: Continuously track key metrics and look for consistency with backtested and Walk-Forward results.

7. Compare and Review the Results:

  • Final Review Report: Create a comparison report summarizing the performance of each strategy across all testing steps and during the forward test. Highlight key metrics, any significant deviations, and overall performance trends.
  • Decision Making: Choose to proceed with strategies or portfolios that maintain robust performance throughout all phases, as they are likely to be the most reliable for live trading.

This comprehensive review ensures that the strategies you move forward with are robust, adaptable, and optimized for real trading environments.

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Now i’ve over 3x,000 Strs. from XAUUSD. for best way i need to adapting those tons of Strs to another pairs like AudUsd what ill do by,..

To adapt your 30,000 XAUUSD strategies to another currency pair like AUDUSD, here’s a breakdown of the best approach for each option:

Option A: Retest

  • Explanation: Run the existing XAUUSD strategies on AUDUSD data without changing any parameters.
  • Pros:
    • Quick Validation: Gives an initial indication of which strategies perform well on a different pair.
    • Robustness Check: Helps identify strategies that are adaptable to different market conditions.
  • Cons:
    • No Optimization: Strategies may not perform as well without adjustments specific to AUDUSD’s characteristics.
  • Best Use Case: Use this approach to filter out strategies that work well on both pairs without modification.

Option B: Directly Optimize

  • Explanation: Use the XAUUSD strategies as a base and optimize their parameters for AUDUSD.
  • Pros:
    • Better Performance: Allows the strategies to adapt their parameters to AUDUSD’s unique behavior.
    • Fine-Tuning: Ensures that strategies are more specifically suited for the new pair.
  • Cons:
    • Time-Consuming: Optimization takes time and computing power.
    • Risk of Overfitting: There’s a chance of over-optimization, making the strategy less robust in live trading.
  • Best Use Case: Use this approach when you need to adapt high-potential strategies to a new pair and improve their performance.

Option C: New Build from Existing Strategies for Initial Strategy

  • Explanation: Use insights and structures from the XAUUSD strategies to build new initial strategies for AUDUSD.
  • Pros:
    • Customization: Allows for incorporating lessons learned from XAUUSD strategies while tailoring them for AUDUSD.
    • Better Adaptability: The resulting strategies can be optimized specifically for AUDUSD from the start.
  • Cons:
    • Takes Longer: Building and testing new strategies requires more time and effort than retesting or direct optimization.
  • Best Use Case: Ideal when you need the most tailored and potentially robust strategies for AUDUSD.

Recommendation:

  1. Start with Option A (Retest): Quickly filter out adaptable strategies to see which ones perform well on AUDUSD without any modifications.
  2. Proceed to Option B (Directly Optimize): Optimize the top-performing strategies from the retest phase to enhance their performance on AUDUSD.
  3. Use Option C (New Build): If you find that most strategies require significant adjustments, build new initial strategies using the structures and successful elements from the XAUUSD strategies.

This approach allows you to balance speed, adaptability, and performance to create a robust set of strategies for AUDUSD.

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Can you explain more about how to set up trailing stops based on indicators in SQX?

In StrategyQuant X (SQX), setting up trailing stops based on indicators allows you to adaptively protect profits as market conditions change. Here’s a step-by-step guide on how to configure trailing stops that follow indicator levels rather than a fixed price distance.

1. Choose an Indicator for Trailing Activation

You’ll want to pick an indicator that provides reliable support or resistance levels for trailing stops. Common indicators for trailing stops include:

  • Moving Average (e.g., EMA or SMA) – Trails based on the trend’s moving average.
  • Parabolic SAR – Trails based on the SAR dots, adjusting dynamically as trends change.
  • ATR (Average True Range) – Trails based on market volatility, keeping stops further away during high volatility and closer during low volatility.
  • Bollinger Bands – Uses upper/lower bands as dynamic stop points.

2. Set Up Indicator-Based Trailing Stops in SQX

Here’s how to configure indicator-based trailing stops in SQX, using a Moving Average as an example:

  1. Define the Trailing Stop Condition:
    • Go to Trading Strategy > Money Management in SQX.
    • Enable Trailing Stop and select Custom for more control over the conditions.
  2. Create a Rule for Trailing Stop Activation:
    • In the Trailing Stop settings, set the rule condition by adding the indicator as a condition for trailing activation.
    • For example, choose Moving Average from the indicator list and set the trailing stop to activate when the price moves a specific distance from the Moving Average line.
  3. Adjust Distance and Frequency:
    • Define the distance between the indicator and the trailing stop:
      • For a Moving Average, you might set the stop to trail at a certain number of pips or percentage below the MA for long positions (or above for short positions).
      • For ATR, you could set the trailing stop to a multiple of the ATR value (e.g., 1.5x ATR).
    • Set the frequency for updating the trailing stop, usually with every new price tick, to ensure it follows the indicator closely.

3. Example Configurations for Different Indicators

Here are configurations for some commonly used indicators as trailing stops:

  • Moving Average (MA) Trailing Stop:
    • Set trailing stop to activate when the price is a certain distance (in pips) away from the selected MA.
    • Example: If the price is 20 pips above a 50-period EMA, set the trailing stop 10 pips below the EMA to follow the trend.
  • ATR Trailing Stop:
    • Activate the trailing stop when ATR exceeds a certain threshold, then trail the stop by a multiple of the ATR.
    • Example: If ATR(14) = 15 pips, set the stop at 1.5x ATR (22.5 pips) from the entry price, adjusting as ATR changes.
  • Parabolic SAR Trailing Stop:
    • Set the trailing stop to follow the SAR dots, which adjust to market reversals.
    • Example: Set the trailing stop to match the SAR level and update with each new SAR value, keeping the stop at the SAR level for trend-following entries.
  • Bollinger Bands:
    • Use the lower band as a trailing stop for long trades and the upper band for short trades.
    • Example: Place the trailing stop at the lower Bollinger Band for a long trade and adjust as the bands move based on volatility.

4. Define the Exit Condition in SQX:

  • Go to the Exit Rules section and add the indicator-based trailing stop as an exit rule.
  • Set the trailing stop to close the position if the price touches or moves past the defined trailing level.

Example: Setting Up a Moving Average-Based Trailing Stop in SQX

  1. Activate Trailing Stop: In the Money Management section, enable Trailing Stop and set the trailing condition based on a 50-period EMA.
  2. Set Distance: Define the trailing stop to trail at a distance of 10 pips below the EMA for long trades.
  3. Update Frequency: Choose on every tick to ensure the stop adjusts as the EMA value changes.
  4. Exit Rule: Set the rule to exit when the price crosses the trailing stop level.

Advantages of Indicator-Based Trailing Stops

  • Adaptability: The trailing stop adjusts to market conditions, following trends and respecting support/resistance.
  • Noise Reduction: Indicator-based stops reduce premature exits, as they often respond to genuine trend shifts rather than small price fluctuations.
  • Dynamic Profit Protection: Stops adapt to volatility and trend strength, helping you lock in profits effectively.

This approach lets you create a responsive trailing stop in SQX that aligns with current market dynamics rather than rigid price points, which is especially useful for trend-following and volatility-based strategies. Let me know if you’d like more specific setup help with any particular indicator!

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Though about how to activate trailing without timeframe activation… It’s on major condition with TF

In StrategyQuant X (SQX), if you want to activate a trailing stop without relying on a specific timeframe, you can do this by setting up the trailing stop condition based on price movement or indicator levels rather than on a timeframe. Here are a few ways to implement this:

1. Activate Trailing Based on Distance from Entry Price (Price-Based)

  • Setup: Set the trailing stop to activate once the price has moved a specific distance (e.g., a certain number of pips or a percentage move) from the entry price.
  • Configuration:
    • In SQX, configure the trailing stop to trigger when the price has moved a specified amount in your favor.
    • Set up the trailing distance as a fixed pip amount, or based on an indicator like ATR or a custom value.
  • Advantage: This activates the trailing stop purely based on price movement, so it doesn’t rely on the passage of time or specific candles.

2. Indicator-Based Trailing Activation (No Timeframe Required)

  • Setup: Use an indicator to dynamically activate the trailing stop when a trend or threshold condition is met, independent of timeframe.
  • Example:
    • Moving Average: Trailing stop activates when the price crosses above a moving average by a certain distance.
    • Parabolic SAR: Use SAR points as a trailing stop activation level, adjusting the stop if the SAR shifts.
    • ADX or Momentum: Activate the trailing stop when a trend strength indicator (like ADX) crosses a threshold, indicating a strong trend continuation.
  • Configuration: In SQX, set the activation condition by configuring the trailing stop rule with an indicator level.

3. Profit-Based Trailing Activation

  • Setup: Activate trailing when the trade reaches a predefined profit level, regardless of timeframe.
  • Configuration:
    • Define a minimum profit level (e.g., 1% or 50 pips) in SQX, and set the trailing stop to activate once this profit threshold is met.
  • Advantage: This keeps the trailing stop inactive until the trade has generated enough profit, helping to secure gains while allowing room for the trade to move.

4. ATR or Volatility-Based Activation

  • Setup: Use ATR (Average True Range) or other volatility-based indicators to activate the trailing stop once the market reaches a certain level of volatility, independent of a fixed timeframe.
  • Configuration: Set the trailing stop activation to trigger when ATR reaches a threshold value. For instance, if ATR goes above a certain level, it may indicate increased momentum, prompting trailing stop activation.
  • Advantage: Volatility-based activation allows the trailing stop to adjust dynamically to market conditions without a reliance on a specific timeframe.

Each of these methods allows you to activate the trailing stop based on market conditions, price movement, or profit levels rather than timeframe-specific events. This flexibility can help secure profits in trending markets while allowing trades enough room to develop in your favor. Let me know if you’d like guidance on configuring any of these methods in SQX!

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Lets get an ideas for more another trading style instead of major!

Here’s an updated version of unique trading styles using three or more signals from your list. This will increase complexity while combining multiple indicators for cross-confirmation and more refined trading decisions.

1. Volatility Compression Breakout Strategy

  • Concept: Use Choppiness Index, ATR, and Disparity Index to detect volatility compression and breakout potential. This strategy identifies low-volatility conditions followed by sharp breakouts.
  • Indicators: Choppiness Index, ATR, Disparity Index
  • Entry: When Choppiness Index and ATR both show low volatility, and Disparity Index confirms price compression below a critical threshold.
  • Exit: Exit on the first sign of ATR expansion or Disparity Index divergence from the breakout direction.

2. Oscillator Reversion and Momentum Burst Strategy

  • Concept: Use Bear Power, Bull Power, and CCI to identify momentum reversals, coupled with Momentum to confirm strong directional movement. This strategy works best in swing trading environments.
  • Indicators: Bear Power, Bull Power, CCI, Momentum
  • Entry: Buy when Bull Power overtakes Bear Power, and CCI indicates oversold with rising Momentum.
  • Exit: Exit when Bear Power gains dominance, or CCI signals overbought.

3. Trend Channel Momentum Strategy

  • Concept: This strategy combines Keltner Channel, Didi Index, and Directional Index to capture trades within price channels while confirming momentum with Didi and Directional Index.
  • Indicators: Keltner Channel, Didi Index, Directional Index
  • Entry: Buy when price touches the lower Keltner Channel, confirmed by a Didi Index crossover and rising Directional Index.
  • Exit: Exit when price reaches the upper channel or Directional Index weakens.

4. Mean Reversion on Trend Weakness

  • Concept: Use Hull Moving Average, RVI, and Directional Index to identify trend weakening and trade counter-trend mean reversions. Ideal for volatile markets prone to snapbacks.
  • Indicators: Hull Moving Average, RVI, Directional Index
  • Entry: Buy when Hull MA indicates weakening trend, confirmed by falling RVI and Directional Index showing weak trend strength.
  • Exit: Exit once Hull MA indicates a trend reversal, or RVI turns neutral.

5. Cycle-Based Trend Reentry Strategy

  • Concept: Combine DSS Bressert, Laguerre RSI, and Momentum to time re-entries into an existing trend during market cycles. This is useful for trading in wave-like price movements.
  • Indicators: DSS Bressert, Laguerre RSI, Momentum
  • Entry: Enter when DSS Bressert signals an upcycle, Laguerre RSI crosses into bullish territory, and Momentum confirms.
  • Exit: Exit when DSS Bressert cycle nears completion or Laguerre RSI diverges.

6. Sentiment and Momentum Reversal Strategy

  • Concept: This strategy uses Bull Power, Bear Power, and RVI to gauge market sentiment, alongside DVO for volume-based confirmation of momentum reversals.
  • Indicators: Bull Power, Bear Power, RVI, DVO
  • Entry: Buy when Bull Power rises above Bear Power, confirmed by RVI signaling bullish momentum and DVO indicating high volume.
  • Exit: Exit when Bear Power overtakes Bull Power or RVI momentum fades.

7. Market Chaos and Divergence Strategy

  • Concept: Combine Entropy Math, CCI, and QQE to identify chaotic markets and exploit price divergence. Ideal for detecting sudden directional shifts or corrections.
  • Indicators: Entropy Math, CCI, QQE
  • Entry: Enter when Entropy Math decreases (chaos subsides) and both CCI and QQE show bullish divergence.
  • Exit: Exit when CCI indicates overbought conditions or Entropy increases again.

8. Dynamic Momentum and Price Rejection Strategy

  • Concept: Use Directional Index, Momentum, and Williams %R to identify strong price rejection in trending markets, trading short-term corrections or pullbacks.
  • Indicators: Directional Index, Momentum, Williams %R
  • Entry: Buy when Williams %R signals an oversold condition during a trending market confirmed by strong Directional Index and Momentum.
  • Exit: Exit when Momentum begins to fade or Directional Index weakens.

9. Volume-Driven Reversal Strategy

  • Concept: Use VWAP, Disparity Index, and AVG Volume to trade reversals based on volume imbalances and price deviation from its average price.
  • Indicators: VWAP, Disparity Index, AVG Volume
  • Entry: Buy when price deviates significantly below VWAP, confirmed by low Disparity Index and rising AVG Volume.
  • Exit: Exit when price returns to VWAP or Disparity Index peaks.

10. Multi-Timeframe Divergence Strategy

  • Concept: Combine Fractal, Directional Index, and Momentum across multiple timeframes (e.g., M5 for entry, H1 for confirmation) to spot fractal-based divergences.
  • Indicators: Fractal, Directional Index, Momentum
  • Entry: Enter when a bullish Fractal forms on M5, confirmed by a rising Directional Index and Momentum on H1.
  • Exit: Exit when a bearish Fractal forms or Directional Index weakens on the higher timeframe.

These strategies leverage three or more signals, which should give you more robustness and cross-confirmation in your trading. You can now explore these combinations based on your market preferences and risk tolerance.

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If i dont want to use ADX MACD RSI ATR.

If you prefer not to use ADXMACDRSI, or ATR, we can build the strategy using other signals from your available list in SQX. Below is an alternative setup using simpler, yet effective indicators:

  • Candle Patterns: For price action and reversal detection.
  • Bollinger Bands: To capture volatility and breakout opportunities.
  • Moving Averages: For trend direction and entry triggers.
  • Fractals: To identify local highs/lows for breakouts or retracements.

1. Entry Signals

  • Candle Pattern: Use bullish or bearish reversal candle patterns (like engulfinghammer, or doji) as entry triggers.
  • Moving Average Crossover:
    • Buy when a faster-moving average (e.g., 10-period) crosses above a slower-moving average (e.g., 50-period).
    • Sell when the faster MA crosses below the slower MA.
  • Bollinger Bands: If the price closes above the upper band, consider a buy (bullish breakout). If it closes below the lower band, consider a sell (bearish breakout).
  • In Entry Conditions, use the Candle Pattern indicator for reversal patterns.
  • Add Moving Average Crossover as a trend confirmation filter.
  • Include a condition using Bollinger Bands to detect breakouts and confirm volatility.
  • Fractal Exit: Exit positions when the price hits a recent fractal high (for buy trades) or a fractal low (for sell trades).
  • Bollinger Bands Reversal: Close the position if the price reverses and closes inside the Bollinger Bands after breaking out.
  • Time-based Exit: Close all positions after 5 days to limit the holding period.
  • Friday Close: Automatically close all trades at 23:30 on Fridays to avoid weekend risk.
  • In Exit Conditions, use the Fractal Indicator to detect recent highs and lows for exit points.
  • Set up a rule to exit when the price re-enters the Bollinger Bands after a breakout.
  • Define a Time-based Exit rule to close trades after 5 days or on Friday.
  • Fixed Lot Size: Trade with 0.01 lots per $100 of the account balance.
  • Risk Management: Set a fixed percentage of risk per trade (e.g., 1% of the total account).
  • Grid Layer (Optional): Place pending buy/sell orders at intervals (e.g., 10 pips) from the current price to capture retracements or price movements.
  • In Money Management, set your fixed lot size and risk percentage.
  • If you want a grid, use the Pending Orders functionality to create a grid around the current price.
  1. Duplicate Trades: Enable multiple trades to open in the same direction.
  2. Break-Even: Move the stop loss to break-even once the trade has moved in your favor by a certain distance (e.g., a fixed pip value or after hitting a fractal level).

  1. Backtest: Run your backtests using M1 data over 20 years.
  2. Optimize: Adjust moving average periods, Bollinger Band deviations, and fractal periods to find the best combination.
  3. OOS Testing: Validate the strategy’s performance on out-of-sample data.

By removing ADXMACDRSI, and ATR, this setup focuses more on price action with simple indicators that track volatility and trend strength.

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Simple Trend Momentum Grid Strategy..

Let’s simplify things by using the signals you already have in your system. Here’s a strategy you can set up with your available indicators:

This strategy will capture both trend-following and breakout moves with simple signals, using indicators already present in SQX.

  1. Primary Indicators:
    • ADX: For confirming strong trends.
    • MACD: For detecting momentum and direction.
    • RSI: To help with overbought/oversold levels.
    • ATR: For volatility-based risk management.

1. Entry Signals

  • MACD Crossover: Enter a buy when the MACD line crosses above the signal line, and enter a sell when the MACD line crosses below the signal line.
  • ADX > 25: Confirm that the market is trending before allowing an entry.
  • RSI Confirmation:
    • If RSI > 70, avoid buying (overbought signal).
    • If RSI < 30, avoid selling (oversold signal).
  • In SQX, use Entry Conditions with MACD crossover as the trigger.
  • Add an additional filter where ADX > 25 to confirm trend strength.
  • Add RSI as a filter to avoid extreme market conditions.
  • Take Profit and Stop Loss: Use ATR-based levels. For example:
    • Take Profit: 2x ATR(14).
    • Stop Loss: 1x ATR(14).
  • Trailing Stop: Trail the stop loss based on ATR, moving the stop higher/lower as the trend progresses.
  • Exit by Time: Close all positions every Friday at 23:30 to avoid weekend gaps.
  • In Exit Conditions, define take profit and stop loss levels based on ATR values.
  • Use the Trailing Stop function with ATR.
  • Set a rule in Exit Conditions to close all trades at a specific time on Friday.
  • Use Lot Size: 0.01 lots per $100 of the account balance.
  • Risk %: Define risk management to ensure that no more than a specific percentage (e.g., 1%) of the total capital is risked on each trade.
  • In SQX, use the Money Management tab to set the lot size and risk percentage.
  • If you want a grid layer to capture additional profits, set up pending orders at regular intervals around the current price (e.g., every 10 pips) with small lot sizes.
  • You can also adjust the grid based on market volatility using ATR.

  1. Backtest: Use your M1 data over the 20-year range to evaluate how the strategy performs.
  2. Optimize: Fine-tune the parameters like ATR multiples, grid intervals, and trailing stops for the best results.
  3. Out-of-Sample Testing: Ensure that your strategy performs well in unseen data to confirm robustness.

This simpler approach will help you use the signals you’re familiar with while maintaining solid trend-following and risk management.